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Getting started on the science of climate change
No one has a single “smoking gun” that could “prove” the anthropogenic influence on the climate system. That’s not the way science works. Our current best understanding of global warming is the product of over 100 years of thought and scientific research. We must appreciate the fundamental fact that nothing in science is ever “proven” (which is why we should never place our ultimate faith in any scientific claim). Our complete faith can only be in God as revealed in His word and in His Son!
But science can be very credible, and it can warrant a high degree of confidence. When climate scientists review the vast literature on climate change, as they did most recently in 2007, they say that they are 90% sure that people are warming the globe. That was the consensus position of all the scientists involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change process, which means that even government scientists from Saudi Arabia and the United States agreed. You wouldn’t get even the most convinced scientist to say he’s 100% sure of our current understanding of global warming, just that he’s very, very confident. That’s the nature of global warming science–it’s about the overwhelming preponderance of the evidence, not “proof” in the legal sense.
It’s always hard to know where to point people who really want to grapple with the science, because everyone starts at a different level of understanding. Going to scientific sources is important, and one should go to scientists actually involved in climate research (not to environmentalists, think-tanks, or even scientists in other fields). Here are some links that would help anyone get started (courtesy of the scientists at www.realclimate.org.
For complete beginners:
- NCAR: Weather and Climate Basics
- Oxford University: The Basics of Climate Prediction
- NASA: Global Warming Update
Third party (non-science) sources, but still good introductions to the science:
- Pew Center: Global Warming Basics
- Wikipedia: Global Warming
A little more in-depth, for those with some knowledge:
The IPCC’s own Frequently Asked Questions is an excellent start. That covers:
- What Factors Determine Earth’s Climate?
- What is the Relationship between Climate Change and Weather?
- What is the Greenhouse Effect?
- How do Human Activities Contribute to Climate Change and How do They Compare with Natural Influences?
- How are Temperatures on Earth Changing?
- How is Precipitation Changing?
- Has there been a Change in Extreme Events like Heat Waves, Droughts, Floods and Hurricanes?
- Is the Amount of Snow and Ice on the Earth Decreasing?
- Is Sea Level Rising?
- What Caused the Ice Ages and Other Important Climate Changes Before the Industrial Era?
- Is the Current Climate Change Unusual Compared to Earlier Changes in Earth’s History?
- Are the Increases in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Other Greenhouse Gases During the Industrial Era Caused by Human Activities?
- How Reliable Are the Models Used to Make Projections of Future Climate Change?
- Can Individual Extreme Events be Explained by Greenhouse Warming?
- Can the Warming of the 20th Century be Explained by Natural Variability?
- Are Extreme Events, Like Heat Waves, Droughts or Floods, Expected to Change as the Earth’s Climate Changes?
- How Likely are Major or Abrupt Climate Changes, such as Loss of Ice Sheets or Changes in Global Ocean Circulation?
- If Emissions of Greenhouse Gases are Reduced, How Quickly do Their Concentrations in the Atmosphere Decrease?
- Do Projected Changes in Climate Vary from Region to Region?
A good resource, often very technical, is a blog maintained by climate scientists called the RealClimate Blog.
For informed folks who need more detail:
Science: You can’t do better than the IPCC reports themselves:
- Fourth Assessment Review
- Third Assessment Review
- History: There is a bery good book on the history of climate change science, Spencer Weart’s Discovery of Global Warming. It was a useful website associated with it.